Identify failure modes and prioritize risks.
Evaluate internal strengths and weaknesses in strategy.
Evaluate external opportunities and threats in strategic decision-making.
A simple guide to describe the complex environment.
Move away from confusion via recognizing emotional and chaotic forces.
Scan external risks and opportunities early using five macro lenses to guide strategy, market entry, and innovation.
Move away from confusion via recognizing emotional and chaotic forces.
In recent years, many leaders, teams, and individuals have noticed something strange: even flexible plans break, small problems quickly grow, and things often make no sense. The world doesn’t just feel uncertain—it feels fragile, emotional, and chaotic.
People used to use VUCA Framework to explain change and complexity, but it doesn’t fully reflect today’s intense, fast-moving world anymore.
Futurist Jamais Cascio introduced a new model in 2020: the BANI framework. It goes beyond VUCA and gives us better language and tools for what we’re facing now.
BANI stands for Brittleness, Anxiety, Non-linearity, and Incomprehensibility. Each one describes a deeper layer of the stress we see in systems, decisions, and behavior.
Brittleness describes situations where things look strong on the surface but can break easily under pressure.
For example, a tightly run global supply chain might operate smoothly for years, but a small disruption—like a shipping delay or factory shutdown—can cause the entire system to fail.
How to respond: To reduce brittleness, organizations need to build capacity (such as backup resources or alternatives) and resilience (the ability to recover quickly from disruption).
Anxiety shows up when people feel unsure about the future and powerless to influence outcomes.
For instance, when employees face constant change without clear communication, they may become fearful, stressed, or disengaged.
How to respond: Leaders must respond with empathy—understanding and addressing people’s feelings—and promote mindfulness, helping teams stay grounded and focused even during uncertainty.
In a non-linear environment, there is no clear link between cause and effect. A minor event can lead to a major outcome, while large efforts might have little impact.
For example, a single tweet can suddenly damage a brand’s reputation.
How to respond: Success in non-linear systems depends on understanding the context behind each situation and staying adaptive, ready to shift direction based on feedback and changing signals.
Incomprehensibility refers to situations that simply don’t make sense, even when you have plenty of data.
For example, a sudden change in customer behavior that cannot be explained by research or past trends.
How to respond: In these moments, it’s important to create transparency—sharing what you know, even if incomplete—and rely on intuition as well as logic to move forward with confidence.